A stochastic forecast of California earthquakes based on fault slip and smoothed seismicity
نویسندگان
چکیده
the model are two pairs of probability density maps. The first pair consists of smoothed seismicity and weighted focal mechanisms based on observed earthquakes. The second pair corresponds to mapped faults and their slip rates and consists of smoothed momentrate and weighted focal mechanisms based on fault geometry. We construct from the model a “stochastic event set”, i.e. a large set of simulated earthquakes that are relevant 20
منابع مشابه
A comparison between the Kazerun (Iran) and the North Anatolian (Turkey) fault systems in fault interaction and seismicity migration based on the spatiotemporal analysis of earthquakes
The Kazerun Fault System (KFS) is a right-lateral strike slip fault system in the middle part of the Zagros seismogenic zone in Iran. Historical and instrumental earthquake data catalogs of this fault system show good evidence of fault interactions and seismic migrations. This study provides evidence for the migration of seismicity in the middle part of the Zagros region along the segments of t...
متن کاملGEAR1: A Global Earthquake Activity Rate Model Constructed from Geodetic Strain Rates and Smoothed Seismicity
Global earthquake activity rate model 1 (GEAR1) estimates the rate of shallow earthquakes with magnitudes 6–9 everywhere on Earth. It was designed to be reproducible and testable. Our preferred hybrid forecast is a log–linear blend of two parent forecasts based on the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) catalog (smoothing 4602 m ≥5:767 shallow earthquakes, 1977–2004) and the Global Strain Rate ...
متن کاملLocally and remotely triggered aseismic slip on the central San Jacinto Fault near Anza, CA, from joint inversion of seismicity and strainmeter data
We study deep aseismic slip along the central section of the San Jacinto Fault, near the Anza Seismic Gap, in southern California. Elevated strain-rates following the remote Mw7.2 April 4, 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah and the local Mw5.4, July 7, 2010 Collins Valley earthquakes were recorded by Plate Boundary Observatory borehole strain-meters near Anza, and were accompanied by vigorous aftershock seq...
متن کاملSeismicity of Batubesi Dam at Sorowako Region Based on Earthquake Data and Microtremor Measurement
Batubesi Dam which is located in Sorowako region in the middle part of Sulawesi island had been designed with seismic coefficient about 0.20g. The region constitutes an active earthquake zone with the recurrence frequency and magnitude of the earthquake are relatively high. The region is located on and active fault zone due to lateral fault movement (strike-slip) of Matano fault, Palukoro fault...
متن کاملProximity to Past Earthquakes as a Least-Astonishing Hypothesis for Forecasting Locations of Future Earthquakes
The Cellular Seismology (CS) method of Kafka (2002, 2007) is presented as a leastastonishing null hypothesis that serves as a useful standard of comparison for other, more complex, spatial forecast methods (i.e., methods that forecast the locations, but not the times, of earthquakes). Spatial forecast methods based on analyses of earthquakes in California such as that of Ebel et al. (2007) and ...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2012